CFP Report #1

 Indiana Hoosiers

The 2022-23 Indiana Hoosiers finally look the part.  They look like a legitimate top 10-15 team.  They look like a legitimate B1G title contender.  They look like a legitimate national championship contender.  But, the question stands: Can they really contend?  This team’s biggest weakness last year was clearly 3-point shooting.  Early returns are proving to be good with a 38.3% rate as a team and Miller Kopp, the Hoosiers’ best sniper, shooting 52%.  The offense looks more uptempo, the defense looks suffocating and the Hoosiers are actually making a fair amount of their free throws.   They have the capability to do it, but will they? 

Ceiling:  National Championship.  I truly believe this team has what it takes.  A go-to player, 2+ ball handling guards, defend like crazy with rim protection, and guys to make big time shots.  The Indiana Hoosiers have it all.

Floor:  Early 1st Weekend Exit.  The Hoosiers also have the potential to flop.  They are not invincible.  I am not 100% sold that their 3-point shooters will hit big shots when it matters most.  When the tension is high and pressure mounts, teams like the Hoosiers will typically seek an unexpected source to make a big play.  Galloway, Reneau, Bates, Geronimo - These players have the ability, but will they deliver when it matters most?

Prediction (as of right now):  Elite Eight.  I am hedging my bias and my hesitation with my beloved Hoosiers.  I wholeheartedly believe this version of IU can be the first B1G team to win a National Championship since 2000.  I have also been disappointed time and time again over the last two decades.  So, here we go, I’m giving my Hoosiers an Elite Eight berth with a chance to go to the Final Four.  Let’s Go! 

Gonzaga Bulldogs

Let me start by saying: I am not one of those ridiculous college basketball fans who claim Gonzaga wasn’t as good as the computers made them out to be.  The 2020-21 Gonzaga Bulldogs were so good, but simply ran into an equally ridiculously good Baylor Bears team.  The 2016-17 version of the Bulldogs was leading in the National Championship game with less than 2 minutes to go.  Mark Few has built a legitimate monster.  This season, however…Woof.  Pun intended.   This team seems to score just as well as past teams through transition offense, but other aspects are far below what we’ve come to see from the Zags.

Ceiling:  Final Four.  Yes, I understand that I said this team is different than in the past, but the Zags can still score at a high level with a legitimate All-American, Drew Timme.  The potential is there.  The key is in the point guard position: Hickman, Smith, Bolton.  One of those players will need to begin playing elite at that position for the Bulldogs to reach their ceiling.  They have 27 games left to get there.

Floor:  First Round Exit.  For the first time since the 2017-18 season, I believe the Gonzaga Bulldogs will not receive a 1-seed.  If they falter against Baylor and Alabama, they could only muster a 5-seed at best.  This puts the Zags in line for a first round upset.

Prediction (as of right now):  First Round Exit.  This is unprecedented.  History is not on my side in regards to this prediction.  Do you realize how long it has been since Gonzaga has been eliminated in the first round of the NCAA Tournament?  It was the 2007-08 season.  I know you want to look it up - They lost to Stephen Curry and the Davidson Wildcats.  There is a lot of time for Gonzaga to right the ship and avoid being in a precarious position come March Madness time.  However, I believe this Bulldogs squad will lose a couple of games in the WCC and I’m not sure they will be able to pull off another Quad 1 win after the Xavier game. 

Creighton Blue Jays

Call me a skeptic of the Creighton Blue Jays in the preseason.  I was skeptical of a lot: 1) Can the Jays be good enough defensively?, 2) How will Nembhard and Kalkbrenner come back from their injuries they suffered at the end of last season?, 3) Will Baylor Scheierman be able to make a major impact on a bigger stage?  Well, I feel like a fool, because, my God, the Creighton Blue Jays look really good.  That Maui Jim Maui CU Alohog UofA Maui Invitational matchup between Creighton and Arkansas was as high level as you can witness in the month of November.  Creighton looked terrific in that game and, more importantly, every one of those questions I had, they answered that game.  Yes, defensively, they gave up a lot to the Hogs, but it seemed more like a high level, high difficulty offense beating out solid defense.  Woo boy, it was fun!

Ceiling:  National Championship.  No doubt about it, this team can get there.  Their offense is electric.  Their defense does a fantastic job on the perimeter, funneling things to their shot-blocking 7-footer, Kalkbrenner, and they hit big shots all over the court.  We haven’t even seen the best out of Arthur Kaluma yet.  That should have Big East foes shaking in their boots.  The 2022-23 Creighton Blue Jays team is a beast.

Floor:  Sweet 16.  This high of a floor is always tough, because the NCAA Tournament is nuts and even a 1-seed is susceptible to being upset in the first weekend.  My biggest concern right now with this group is their depth.  I believe they are pretty much a 5-man depth chart.  They will need to have one or two guys that start to impact the game.  If an injury occurs, it could doom this team before it reaches its great potential.

Prediction (as of right now):  Final Four.  I love what I’ve seen from this group.  I will be glued to their upcoming matchup at Texas.  That, in my opinion, is a potential Final Four/National Championship preview.  Both teams look ferocious on both ends of the floor.  I’m not sure the Blue Jays will be a 1-seed, but, barring injury to a major contributor, I don’t see this team suffering an early loss, even in the chaotic atmosphere that is the NCAA Tournament.