CFP #2

 Purdue Boilermakers

Okay, I see you, Boilers.  So far, Purdue has looked like one of those underrated Matt Painter teams that doesn’t have a superstar but everyone fits a role and they play it to a tee.  I say this team has no superstar understanding the Boilers have a 7’4’’ Goliath in the middle, Zach Edey.  He is virtually unstoppable and with increased minutes this season, Edey is vaulting into 1st team All-American stratosphere.  The real surprise for Purdue has been the stellar play of a pair of freshmen, Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer.  I think it’s fair to say the Boilermakers’ biggest question entering the season was the two guard positions, and, specifically, would Smith and Loyer be ready to make an impact right away.  Early returns point to an overwhelming success for Purdue.

Ceiling:  Final Four.  I like a lot about this team: they score efficiently, they’re defending at a higher level than the past few seasons, and they take care of the basketball.  Matt Painter has built Purdue into as consistent a college basketball program as any in the country.  The difference between this team and other Boilermaker teams in the recent past: the 2022-23 Purdue Boilermakers are defending better while maintaining a solid rebounding rate and elite shot quality rate. 

Floor:  First Four exit.  I have enough faith in Painter that he will surely make this Boilermaker team into an NCAA Tournament team.  My hesitation is that as teams get more tape on these Boilers, the game plan against them becomes more effective.  The offensive motion that Purdue employs is beautiful to watch, but they play at a slow pace making their efficiency dependent on timing, crisp post feeds and clutch shooting.  

Prediction (as of right now):  Round of 32.  Yes, I’m impressed.  Yes, I think they’re playing better than a projected Round of 32 exit team.  However, the teams that they have played so far have major issues on the offensive end (even Gonzaga).  I think 2 things are true: 1. Purdue is playing out of their minds right now and looks like a top 10 team, and 2. Their opponents have not taken advantage of Purdue’s weakness on defense in pulling Edey away from the basket and utilizing ball screen after ball screen after ball screen to score.  I accept the ceiling is much higher than I thought in the preseason, mainly due to the emergence of Smith and Loyer, but I still hold onto the idea that struggles are coming and offenses will exploit their weakness. 

Xavier Musketeers

Part of the reason I’m choosing the teams I’m choosing is because I’ve seen something that I thought was surprising in some way.  I was genuinely interested in this Musketeers squad entering the year because they were playing my Hoosiers early in the season, and, for the past couple seasons, they were a quality team that simply couldn’t finish the way they started.  With a lot of players back from last year’s team and a scoring guard transferring in, I felt Xavier was poised to finally live up to the potential we’ve seen the last few seasons.  The encouraging part is their offense is competitive and dynamic.  There will be a lot of sleepless nights ahead for Big East coaches scouting against the Musketeers.  The question for this team lies in its defense.  

Ceiling:  Sweet 16.  I think this group can make it past the first weekend.  Realistically, if you can make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, you have a legitimate chance of making an Elite 8 or Final Four (see St. Peter’s last season).  I do think Xavier’s defense will get better throughout the season, but I don’t see it being a strength.  They have the versatility and shot-making ability at the guard position to be a second-weekend team.

Floor:  NIT team.  We’ve seen this movie before.  These players have had great starts to their season only to fall flat and miss the NCAA Tournament.  Will they fall victim to another NIT berth versus making it to the NCAAs?  They missed on some real great opportunities in the non-con part of the schedule - only having West Virginia and at Cincinnati left to make a statement, both of which are probably non-NCAA Tournament teams. 

Prediction (as of right now):  First Round exit.  I believe Sean Miller will have this team in the NCAA Tournament.  I think they’ll be in that 7-10 seed range.  Maybe they sneak out of the first round and get a 1-seed or 2-seed in the Round of 32.  Could they upset a top 8 team in college basketball?  Yes.  Will they?  I lean: No. 

Memphis Tigers

You may be wondering: Why Memphis?  To you, I say: Valid question.  I was interested in this program because I wanted to see what they could build upon from the last two months of last year’s squad.  Six games into their season, the Memphis Tigers look like an NCAA Tournament team, but they don’t appear to be much better, if at all, than the 9-seed 2021-22 Tigers.  That team played stellar defense the last two months and had a solid offense to  make the Tournament.  I see the same great on-ball defense, but I also see the same boring, sometimes leaderless offense.  It can be hard to watch.  Luckily, I watched 3 of their games for you, so you can take my word for it and not watch this team until February when they play Houston.  You’re welcome. 

Ceiling:  Sweet 16.  This is ultimately why I am featuring Memphis.  They do have this potential.  It’s difficult to see right now, but their defense will be solid enough to put them in good positions come Tournament time.  They are also pretty old and experienced.  That will matter come March.

Floor:  NIT team.  Then, there’s this side of the coin.  These Memphis Tigers are not stellar.  There are a lot of flaws.  The American is not a fluff league where you can play a B or C game and still win.  They’re not incredibly deep, either.  Like I said, they’re kind of a difficult watch at this point.  

Prediction (as of right now):  NCAA Tournament appearance.  I ultimately think this team will end up being the way they were last year.  Solidly in the Tournament, but in that 7-10 seed range, and, yes, they may win the first round game, but I have a hard time seeing them getting to the second weekend at this point.